New analysis from the Health Foundation estimates that an additional £3.4 billion a year would be needed by 2028/29 to avoid adult social care services from declining.
Ahead of the government’s forthcoming Spending Review, the Foundation says that this is the bare minimum required to prevent a further deterioration in services and to signal the government’s commitment to improving social care. Anything less than this risks more people going without the care they need, a decline in the quality of care or a higher burden on unpaid carers.
This new analysis comes as the Casey Commission begins its review of adult social care, which aims to set out recommendations for longer-term reform. The government’s terms of reference state that the Commission’s interim recommendations must work ‘within the fiscal constraints of Spending Review settlements’. The Health Foundation is therefore calling on the government to use the Spending Review to signal its commitment to improving adult social care by providing enough funding to shore up services.
The analysis estimates the funding required to meet social care needs over the next decade as we live longer and to improve people’s care. It estimates additional funding that would be needed under three scenarios:
- £3.4 billion to meet the growing demand for social care and cover rising coststo employers in 2028/29. By 2034/35 this rises to £9.1bn
- £6.4 billion to meet demand, cover rising costs, and improve access to care in 2028/29. By 2034/35 this rises to £12.7bn*
- £8.7 billion tomeet demand, cover rising costs, improve access, andboost pay in 2028/29. By 2034/35 this rises to £15.4bn**
Beyond investing in the current system, more fundamental reform is needed, including funding reform to provide people with fairer and more generous state protection against care costs.
The Foundation has also published new analysis of current and historical spending on adult social care. It finds that social care has seen a funding boost since the pandemic, following a decade of cuts and stagnation. Despite this, real terms spending per person on social care was 2.6% lower in 2023/24 than in 2009/10, after adjusting for population ageing.
Hugh Alderwick, Director of Policy at the Health Foundation, said;
“The fiscal outlook means tough decisions for the Chancellor at the forthcoming Spending Review. Decades of political neglect mean the social care system is a threadbare safety-net, with too many people falling through the gaps.
“The Casey Commission aims to set out a plan for social care reform, but the government’s timeline for the Commission risks more fundamental changes being ducked or delayed, despite problems in the sector being well known, so we encourage the Commission to bring forward proposals for reform as soon as possible. The Spending Review is a chance for the government to signal its commitment to improving social care by providing a down payment on the investment needed for reform. This would help people get the support they need, ease the burden on unpaid carers, provide a fair wage to care workers, and support the NHS.”